Saturday, December 13, 2008

Taleb less angry

Nassim Taleb with Charlie Rose interviews Nassim Taleb, author of the Black Swan at the 'Financial Ninja' blog. A less angry yet salient conversation about financial reality today. Interesting point... commerce and business are so optimized now... that a cancelled Christmas shipment results in a factory in China shutting down the next day... hyperbole maybe? but the world is indeed complex now... the problem with optimization... is that you usually do not have alot of redundancy built into the system... this makes me think of Lean Manufacturing... or even hyper pipelined computer architecture.... you have this highly efficient chain of dependencies that allow you to optimize your outputs... the problem being though... that if one link in the chain fails... you have to clear the 'pipeline' and take a massive penalty... so it seems that in some cases... on one end of the spectrum you have efficiency... on the other hand redundancy... but with efficiency comes fragility... and with redundancy comes resilience....

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