Friday, September 25, 2009

Trader Kyle analyzes my the Taco-Bell technical signal

From my buddy Kyle (he's a real trader dude)

Here is his response to my Post on The Toxic Mexican Asset Class Technical Indicator

happened to see your blog post about toxic mexican asset pricing. i find the conclusion highly unlikely.
take your chicken chart back a bit (5yrs) and it's really not that dramatic. due to price stickiness (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sticky_(economics)) it's unlikely monthly variations in spot chicken prices would make it down to retail prices so soon and on such little volatility.
even if soybeans can be some kind of a proxy for pinto beans, last summers commodities orgy sure ski-jumped them, but the bean burrito has been $0.99 for at least the last few years so a rich beans hedge for YUM is probably not the cause.
ZS

Poultry Futures prices over 5 years

maybe it's to establish price parity with the undisputed king of fast food mexican - DEL TACO. as a recent consumer of a TB bean burrito i can assure you it is nothing close to the value of a DT 1/2lb bean and cheese.
or perhaps YUM is on board with the 'poor people are forced to eat less healthy' so they can die campaign

Nutritional Info on the Toxic Mexican Asset Class

regardless you can still thank bernanke and greenspan for propping up yet another toxic market driving the bean burrito from its childhood fondness of $0.69 to it's present $0.99. given the dollar's present death-march you can look forward to them all costing $10 within a couple of years anyway. as the menu so topically asks, 'why pay more?' perhaps HR1207 can satisfy the hunger of main st's inquisitions...
DXY trail of tears

The DXY US dollar index future spot price TRAIL OF TEARS

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